There is an 85% chance that 2023 will be the hottest year ever recorded, in a devastating statistic that highlights the urgency of the climate crisis.
According to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, 2023 is likely to become the hottest year in the books based on studies with temperature data from the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Analyses from other climate experts, including the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and NASA confirm this estimate.
The rise in temperature is due to a strong weather pattern, called El Niño, and an unprecedently hot summer.
“I think it is very safe to say at this point that 2023 is the odds-on favourite to be the warmest year on record,” said Hausfather, who had thought 2023 would land as the fifth hottest at the beginning of this year. “What’s changed is the last two months have been incredibly hot, setting records by a very large margin compared to what we’ve seen in the past.”
His comments come after July was the warmest month ever recorded.
“In each case the source of the data and the processing is different, but all will be reasonable reflections of what is actually happening. It’s hot,” Gavin Schmidt, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said.
Urgent action required
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